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ZAPAD-25: Is this Cover?

6 min readAug 5, 2025

I think it’s time to consider that Russia is not precisely original with its plans. And also, geography has not changed much. And no, I am hardly the only one who thinks that, as in 2022, Russians will use a military exercise as cover.

First, look at the exercise. That a Ukrainian channel is saying the same is hardly a surprise. After all, Russians did the same in 2022. And like the invasion of Hungary, Chekoslovakia, and Afghanistan, Russia attempted a paratroop drop at Hostomel, to then move to Kyiv. It worked the other three times, and full confession, Western armies also contemplate the capture of airports and other strategic sites. Airports are ideal for establishing forward bases for larger forces to move in. So this is not just Russians.

So here is the explanation on the coming exercises:

The strategic nuclear exercises “Zapad-2025” of Russia and Belarus will start next month

What is known:
📍It is officially stated that about 13,000 military personnel are to participate in the exercises, and OSCE observers will be invited.
📍According to experts and intelligence estimates, the actual number may reach up to 100,000 people if reserves and support are taken into account.
📍Belarus has decided to move them deeper into the country, rather than near the western border with NATO countries.
📍Analysts do not rule out the practice of scenarios involving tactical nuclear strikes, hypersonic missiles, and even simulation of invasions into NATO countries or Ukraine.
📍The 2021 “Zapad” exercises…

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Nadin Brzezinski
Nadin Brzezinski

Written by Nadin Brzezinski

Historian by training. Former day to day reporter. Sometimes a geek who enjoys a good miniatures game. You can find me at CounterSocial, Mastodon and rarely FB

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