You are correct. Russia was going to take Ukraine in three days. Maybe perhaps a week. At the moment you are losing soldiers to cold weather because there are no winter uniforms. Troops are starting to realize they are just meat. This is because there are no Ratnik uniforms, or kit or even sleeping bags. The state was looted. Yet you are here telling me how wonderful things are. It is actually funny to watch.
There are some in Russia who understand this. They want a free country. Ever so slowly they are doing something about it. I respect those people. They got off the couch. Instead here we are. So you want another allegory of where this is heading…the Treaty of Portsmouth after you got your ass handed to you by another people you considered lesser human. In fact, the assumptions made for this war are very similar to that war. It was just as disastrous for Russia at the Tsushima Straits.