We shall see. But giving what terms you used, this is not about math, or military theory, for you. Suffice it to say, Russia is not surrounding Kharkiv anytime soon. Or for that matter pushing out of Donbas.
Again, it’s math.
There are still months, at least the summer campaign of hard fighting. But Russia is quickly running out of modern armor, for example. I somehow don’t think they will resort to the well maintained T34/85 used on victory parade. But it is quickly coming down to the T60s in hard storage. I mean the ones that might move, because a lot are rust buckets.