We Hold Our Collective Breath

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Finally! Election day is here. It feels as if time is standing still. The nation waits for the polls to close and the counting to start. Nothing short than the fate of the nation is at stake. This language is common every four years. This year, it’s real. Will we remain a democracy with all its warts and faults? Or will we become an autocracy, where a strong man determines the fate of the nation? We also know that things are extremely tense. Storefronts are boarding up nationwide. People are still voting, as the polls open nationwide.

As the polls close expect a lot of lies and outright disinformation on social media. This moment is ripe for exploitation for those who want to start the violence. We will see a lot of things that will not make sense, and if they don’t, ignore them. If they do, check them for their validity. In other words, if you were not skeptical before, start now.

We know that there are already calls for violence, starting from the president. This is a Tweet of his that dropped last night:

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Some or all of the content shared in this Tweet is disputed and might be misleading about an election or other civic process. Learn more

The Supreme Court decision on voting in Pennsylvania is a VERY dangerous one. It will allow rampant and unchecked cheating and will undermine our entire systems of laws. It will also induce violence in the streets. Something must be done!

Learn how voting by mail is safe and secure

5:02 PM · Nov 2, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

First, this is not normal. Normal presidents do not go out of their way to stoke violence. He is giving permission to his most adoring fans, many of whom are organized already, to go create havoc. Chaos is what Donald Trump does, and this is what he has been doing for the last four years. These people will also spread misinformation and rumors online. To be brutal, they are targets of it as well.

So watch your six, keep your head on a swivel and be aware of your surroundings.

When so many millions have already voted, exit polls will hardly reflect the voting public. So here is a pro-tip, don’t listen to them. I do hope the media is not going to try to do them this year because frankly, they will reflect those who waited to this moment. If they do, pro-tip, ignore them. Especially in states like California, they are not worth anything. In a few states they may have a little more value, but with the many people who have already voted, not really. So be extremely skeptical here.

When Will We Know?

We could have an early night. This will only happen if states that canvas early break for either side and we get to 270 electoral votes. This is a critical point. However, for that to happen, we need to count in these states to be close to one hundred percent or be so out of whack that it is mathematically impossible for the other side to overcome that. This is the only way that media organizations will call a race, however, these are NOT OFFICIAL. They are merely projections based on math. To be honest, the math is pretty simple.

I expect media organizations to be especially careful this year. The stakes are way too high. So do not rely on your uncle, or for that matter campaigns, to tell us who is ahead. Things to watch that will matter, how either candidate performs in early counts. This will be important. The gold standard is still the Associated Press.

We could be in for a week or more before we know who won. Yes, this will be close in some places. But we need to be patient. Over the course of that time, you can expect to see a lot of disinformation flood the zone and for tempers to be fraying. I can only counsel patience,

We may see results earlier, and I am hoping for such, because of the number of people who went to the polls for the first time. These voters were not captured in any of the polling and have the potential of changing national politics. We should celebrate this season of democracy, which includes widespread participation.

The longer this takes, the longer the president will have to discredit the process, especially if he feels this is not going his way. If this is too close to call, he will suddenly become a believer in every vote count. He is a transactional individual, with no core believes. Well, except his white supremacy.

IT IS NORMAL to have to wait for results. No election is certified on election night. Let me repeat this, IT IS NORMAL TO HAVE TO WAIT FOR RESULTS. We all need to be patient.

I do expect a Blue Tsumami because of all the data, but it is likely we will see a red mirage in a few places well before we have a final result. So be patient. This is the mantra for the day. Be patient.

Written by

Historian by training. Former day to day reporter. Sometimes a geek who enjoys a good miniatures game.

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