Back in 2016, I was one of the few analysis who said, Donald Trump, is going to win the presidency. It was obvious to me, by November and even wrote a piece on a now-defunct paper calling this in December of 2015. I remember telling family this as well and they were shocked. I told this to friends, who were equally astounded, But the polls! I also told people, forget about national polls, look at state-level polls. Those had noise in them that told me that Hillary Clinton was in trouble. In the United States, we do not have direct elections of presidents. You vote for electors to vote in the electoral college. In theory, they can ignore all of us and vote for the janitor who was not even in any ballot but is 35 years old and natural-born citizen. Some electors have gone against their party a few times as well.
Those polls told educated observers that Trump could win the election. It was also how people spoke about Hillary Clinton. Full disclosure, I did not vote for her, but I live in a deep blue state, so had a luxury people in places like Michigan did not. And no, my vote did not come from the many shifting reasons given by people who refused. It came directly from the emails released by the Department of State that revealed to me she had no clue what to do with classified material. Not that I had any hopes Trump would do better, but why would I reward a politician for doing something that would land cogs in the machine in prison? And as I have told people, if I were in Wisconsin I would have held my nose with a clothespin. Again, I could read polls. There was very little risk that my protest vote would affect the outcome.
I am doing exactly the same thing now, and am keeping a keen eye on those state-level polls. At this point states that have not been in play in decades are, see Arizona. Texas may very well be in play as well. We are also watching reliable parts of the conservative base leave, such as white working women. Why? Coronavirus.
There are other markers that he is in trouble. We can see that he is well underwater in multiple states. But I also rely on something else. I watch carefully social media and talk with people from around the country. Then there is one particular place where the president is also in trouble. This is not captured by-polls, or if it is, not in any obvious way. I have been an avid reader of far right-wing sites since they are some of his strongest fans. He is one of them after all, and those sites is where people radicalize as well.
In many ways, Trump is their dream candidate. And I might add, he is the last great hope for the white supremacists to stop the browning of the country. They have been behind the wall, and the get tough on immigration stand taken by Trump. It is exactly the kind of policies that they wanted. They were extremely happy when he called certain countries shit countries. They were beyond ecstatic when he said that he’d prefer immigrants from you know, white northern European nations.
Over the last few months support for Trump in these sewers has become soft. It is to the point that many of them do not think he will get a second term, or that they will vote for him. It is not yet a deluge. But it is significant enough that it got my attention. Then there was the statement that one random poster made that Trump cannot win without the white vote. It was one of those identity political statements that are common these days.
It’s not that these people make a large slice of the electorate, in fact they don’t. But they are a good bellwether for certain regions of the country. In fact, a few of those are within states that are critical for the presidential election. This is one reason I pay attention to these sites. There are others.
We are also starting to see more than just noise among conservative elites. They realize that they are likely going to lose the White House, And we saw a remarkable Tweet thread over the weekend. I am quoting it in full:
BREAKING — (thread)GOP operatives are for the first time raising the possibility that @realDonaldTrump could drop out of the race if his poll numbers don’t rebound. Over the weekend I spoke to a sample of major players; one described Trumps current psyche as “fragile.” I’m
Replying to @CGasparino
not convinced yet; he’s got time and he’s running against an opponent who is literally hiding in his basement. Plus the public isn’t focusing yet on just how left wing @JoeBiden has become, so much so, he can bring himself to denounce rioting.
That said the speculation indicates how tense GOP operatives are about Trump losing and the party losing the senate and having their entire agenda abolished in a leftist wave election. Again lots of time and Trump has endured a horrible couple of months but that’s the snap shop
We are seeing this from other operatives, I personally do not believe Trump would go the way of Lyndon Johnson. However, this is telling as to where we are. This is his party and his operatives becoming increasingly concerned. The usual talking points are not working. Calling Joe Biden left wing is not working, And we know that Trump is looking for another nickname for his opponent since Sleepy Joe is not working.
Is Trump shook up? Most likely, the rally at Tulsa did not have the expected turnout. In fact, it was a rebuke if any was to be given. And now we are starting to see some in his party starting to wear masks, and begging people to do so. Among them, Leader Mitch McConnell and Vice-President Mike Pence. Trump is yet to do so. Partly, real men do not show weakness or admit when they are wrong. This speaks to the response.
So yes, Trump is in real trouble and likely will not win in November. This is one of the many reasons he keeps telling us that the elections were fraudulent. Incidentally, this will make the coming months even more dangerous.