Trump…

Nadin Brzezinski
4 min readFeb 25, 2024

This is the rare piece on United States elections and the coming November general election. First, over the last twenty years, I covered a lot of US politics. I did a lot of local politics, as well as national politics when it related to California. We stopped doing a lot of local politics because while it matters, people don’t want to pay for it. This is why a lot of newsrooms have moved away from local coverage.

This is a problem. However, this experience allows me to see national politics through a slightly different lens than partisans on either side. While Donald Trump won the open primary in South Carolina, it once again showed a few problems for Trump.

The first is polling. Companies keep putting out bad products because they refuse to change their methods. Over the decades, they moved away from field interviews to relying on phone calls. These are landline calls, which are becoming a dinosaur.

No, the calls are not just to Republicans. Some people wrongly believe this. In an open primary, you will call all likely voters, not just one party. But, if you use landlines, you exclude a considerable part of the potential electorate.

So here is what we had yesterday. Trump way underperformed the polls. So here is the data from the exit polls as well:

So now let’s talk about my gut, which was on point in 2016. I was talking to my chiefly rural and suburban voters in a trending blue county, now bluer. But it still gives you a feel because national races reflect local feelings.

My gut says that Republicans are getting trounced in November. Dems will keep the Senate and the White House by larger margins and retake the House…in a historic flip. But my gut is nothing without data…it’s just that, a feeling.

So here is some data to support this.

Republicans underperformed in 2022. The red wave was predicated on polling. They underperformed the polling data so that the House majority is as narrow as possible. One way to kill MAGA is precisely in the ballot box. But it’s not over until the fat lady, or is that Wolf Blitzer? Ok, it’s the Associated Press. As much as it hurts the prediction rooms at MSNBC, CNN, and FOX, the standard most of the press uses is the Associated Press.

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Nadin Brzezinski

Historian by training. Former day to day reporter. Sometimes a geek who enjoys a good miniatures game. You can find me at CounterSocial, Mastodon and rarely FB