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The War Could Expand
There is noise now that the war could expand beyond Ukraine. Over the last few hours, we have more evidence that Poland is hardening its border with Belarus. The obvious question is, what is going on? So this is speculation based on what we know from open sources.
Weeks ago we learned that Valery Gerasimov was considering a run on Lviv, the westernmost Ukrainian city and a logistics node for all western weapons and humanitarian aid. Of all the things that the Russian Federation has considered, this one makes sense. Though in my view they are a day late, and a dollar short. Or is that a year late? But I digress. There is military logic in this.
Cutting Lviv off from the West will cut most of the supplies to the rest of the country. It is a deep hit into the logistics chain that the Ukrainian military is using. In some ways it parallels what the UAF is doing in the east, hitting deep into the Russian lines. What I am saying is of all the things Russia has attempted, this makes military sense. However, they don’t have the people to pull this off, let alone trained people.
Thus we have to look at the polish border with Belarus which is now getting tank traps. The closest Polish city from that crossing is Byalistok, a half-hour drive. It's also about twenty minutes from the small town my dad was born in, Knyshin, and it is flat. When we visited with dad in the…