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The Future of the Russian Economy and the Incoming Trump Administration
Kommersant had an interesting piece on the future of the Russian economy, at least for the coming year. It’s not looking at it in isolation for Russia; as much as they claim they are isolated from the world, it is not an autarchy. If it were, then they would have to blame somebody else. Wait, they still do.
There is a critical caveat to this piece. If you expect these things, they are not black swans. By definition, these are unexpected events. The Russian Army deserting en masse would be a black swan:
“Black Swans” — 2025
In November-December 2024, Dengi conducted a traditional survey of analysts, economists and managers about the key risks for the global and Russian economies, as well as the local financial system in the coming year.
🔹 For the third year in a row, the key risk for the global and Russian economies, according to analysts and managers, is the escalation or expansion of current and the emergence of new armed conflicts.
🔹 With Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House, the risks of new trade wars have increased. The consequences will affect all world markets, both raw materials and consumer markets. China will be the one most affected.
🔹 In 2025, new rounds of inflation…