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Syria and Assad
Events in Syria are moving very fast, so being exact or correct will be challenging, especially for the next 72 hours. We may be watching the collapse of the Assad regime. So, let me start with this, and please use salt because it’s a rumor.
However, the people behind Ateo Breaking seem to have the same useful decoder ring:
Bashar al-Assad is now in Tehran — @AteoBreaking
Upd. Syrian channels now deny that Assad is in Tehran, saying he is monitoring the situation from Damascus.
By the way, this came after a government denial on state television. Usually, in authoritarian states, we are either at an event that has happened or near that point. So we may be at or near government collapse.
So, now what we know:
* The rebels, HTS, have captured Hama and are moving in the direction of Homs after Homs is Damascus.* The Israelis have bombed all land crossings between Lebanon and Syria, as well as chemical weapons repositories.
* Borders with Jordan have also closed.
* Russia has called for its citizens to leave. They clarified it was just tourists, but…
* We need to figure out the Med naval group. Two ships may have returned to port after scrambling out two days ago. As an aside, I am positive we are shadowing them and maybe the Israeli Navy.