Signals of Trouble in Russia

It’s the little things that speak to trouble in the Russian Federation. The first is Kazakhstan. The country is nominally independent and has been since 1991. In general, some of these countries, like Belarus, act in closer concert with Moscow. Kazakhstan has broken with Moscow a few times. Some symbolic, some not so much.

For example, Kazakhstan canceled May 9 events. Remember, this is a big deal in modern-day Russia. Canceling this was a signal of independence. Here is another that rolled through Telegram this morning:

Tokayev, (the president of Kazakhstan) following the “spit” to Putin, refused to be his order bearer.

The President of Kazakhstan did not accept the Russian Order of Alexander Nevsky. Until the end of his presidency, Tokayev decided not to accept any awards at all.

And so beautifully yesterday at SPIEF, Tokayev, sitting next to Putin, said that he did not recognize the independence of the “quasi-state territories” of the DPR and LPR.

Now, the country is also a member of the Russian-led successor military alliance to the Warsaw Pact. This is the Collective Treaty Security Organization, CSTO, for short. Only Belarus has considered helping Russia in the misadventure in Ukraine.