Shoigu, Hits in Crimea, Change

Nadin Brzezinski
12 min readSep 14, 2023

After the attack on Sebastopol, Sergei Shoigu was asked if Russia would win. He said they had no choice but proceeded to shrug his shoulders. The video is gone from the Channel 1 website, yet it lives online.

You would think they would know that all this material is downloaded the second it’s posted. But what did remain was an interview that MO compared to past performances. It shows a certain doubt from the current Minister of Defense. Here is the post in all its glory:

Shoigu is no longer confident of victory. Over the course of a year and a half of war, his rhetoric changed from “dominance has been won” to “we survived the summer… we are holding the line.”

In today’s short interview with the Rossiya-1 TV channel, the Minister of Defense looked confused and depressed, and when asked whether Russia would win, he answered after a pause. “MoD” compared this speech of the minister with a cheerful speech at a meeting of the Ministry of Defense a month after the start of the invasion (both speeches are in one video) .

🤙 What Shoigu said on March 29, 2022:
📍The main tasks of the first stage of the operation have been completed.
📍The combat potential of the Ukrainian armed forces has been significantly reduced.
📍Air supremacy was won, the Ukrainian Air Force and air defense system were practically destroyed. The naval forces ceased to exist, all ground forces formations suffered significant losses .

👎 What Shoigu said on September 13, 2023:
📍We survived, went through the spring campaign, the summer one, and now the autumn one has arrived.
📍The troops are holding the line, defending what we need to defend.
📍To the correspondent’s question “will we win?” the minister paused, waved his hands uncertainly, and only then said: “we have no other options.”

🪖 The last significant success of the Russians was the capture of Lisichansk and Severodonetsk in the summer of 2022 . After this, Shoigu’s army retreated from the Kharkov region and from Kherson. In May, at the cost of heavy losses, the Wagnerites captured Bakhmut, but both sides recognized that this point was not of strategic importance. During the summer counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Russian troops were driven out of several villages in the Zaporozhye and Donetsk regions

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Nadin Brzezinski

Historian by training. Former day to day reporter. Sometimes a geek who enjoys a good miniatures game. You can find me at CounterSocial, Mastodon and rarely FB