Russian Combat Losses Continue

Nadin Brzezinski
4 min readApr 24, 2022
A captured Russian artillery piece via Twitter

Yes, I know what Russia intends to do. The current goal of the Russian Federation is to take the south and connect with the occupied region of Transtrinia. From a strategic point of view, if they achieved this, it would landlock Ukraine.

So now back to reality. The new offensive stalled even faster than the offensive on Kyiv. It literally is frozen and has been for a couple of weeks. Now that Russia has decided to bypass the remaining fights on Mariupol, the troops are heavily attrited. Pouring them back into the fight is exactly what Russia will do. Why do I say that? This is exactly what they did with the 4th Brigade of Guards and the 64th Motor brigade. This last unit was given the title of Guards by Vladimir Putin and was involved in the Bucha War Crimes. It is a cynical way to ensure no survivors for war crime trials. Also, dead heroes never argue with official stories. So that is also very convenient.

In other words, Russia has no remaining reserves. They are also losing equipment at a fast clip, and continue to throw units a company at a time. There is more. At this point, Ukraine has more tanks than the Russian Federation. Some are tanks donated from Eastern European inventories. Some are captured Russian equipment, which they are fixing and bringing back into the field.

A normal military doctrine states that any offensive needs to have a numeric advantage in both troops and equipment. Russia has neither. They also keep losing general officers at a fast clip. We are to just over half who are no longer in command. Ukraine used artillery to attack a command post in the Kherson oblast, killing two generals and sending a third one to the hospital.

Losing over half of the general officers in an invasion is unprecedented in modern warfare. In the Russian military, this is likely even more of a disaster. This is a military force with a strict top-down command structure, where no creativity is allowed. This means that losing generals and colonels has a very real effect on combat effectiveness.

Units are nowhere close to full personnel rosters, and while sixty thousand have been recalled, they are nowhere close to deploying. Losses are already north of those reserves.

--

--

Nadin Brzezinski

Historian by training. Former day to day reporter. Sometimes a geek who enjoys a good miniatures game. You can find me at CounterSocial, Mastodon and rarely FB