Noise of Both Trouble and Further Mobilization
The first thing I want to share with you is what we have seen, but now this comes from Russbrief. This is a Russian channel. It matters because it points to economic troubles getting worse. If the rubble is indeed collapsing, the next step may be hyperinflation.
What is happening with the ruble is clearly classified as a collapse. Firstly, this is the worst performance in 2023 compared to the currencies of the countries of the first and second tiers, not counting the Turkish lira. Secondly, the rapid devaluation momentum is taking place in the context of a recovery in commodity prices and in the context of the strongest rise in oil prices over the past 1.5 years. There are two main ways to save the ruble in the short term: introduce currency controls at various levels (the list of instruments and directions is quite wide) or sharply increase the rate at the cost of economic growth. Pavel Ryabov
This will affect the middle class, which remains in straightforward ways. Mind you, the poor will also see their purchasing power also decrease further, even with the incredibly rich salaries paid to volunteers, when they are indeed paid. Some never are.
How bad could hyperinflation get? That’s a good question. So, it’s worth watching, but not worth making predictions. The reality is that until now, the central bank has…