More like 1989 I think. People will fill the Russian APCs on the way home. It will seem sudden when it happens. Anecdotally some may already be walking home, from places like Kherson.

Intel missed the lack of payment for Soviet troops. But they did not want to start a war without getting paid. They discovered that when they went over paperwork captured. Payment at the time was done directly to the troops at the unit level.

These days it’s an electronic transfer. How long that will continue to work is a good question.