It’s a Delegate Race…

The night was wild. And during the night Bernie Sanders under-performed. States he won in 2016 he lost. While he won California, his other firewall, Texas, did not go his way. Both Mike Bloomberg and Elizabeth Warren did terribly. Their race is likely over. Bloomberg is now out and I expect Warren to drop out within seventy-two hours. I also expect her to endorse Joe Biden on the way out.

There are a few things that emerged in the exit polling. The most significant in my mind is that people made their minds at the last minute. This means that neither Bernie Sanders or Joe Biden made their case in an overwhelming way. However, the momentum is clearly with the Biden camp.

Another is that the youth vote continues to be a non-reality. Yes, the system is rigged and we need major changes. But this will not happen unless the revolution shows up in overwhelming numbers at the booth. This did not happen. And it is worst for the progressive wing, it way under-performed in states it won in 2016, save California. There they have over-performed. With Bloomberg’s endorsement of Joe Biden on the way out, that blunts the delegate haul for Sanders.

Now here is the truth. Sanders needs to over-perform from this moment on, or he will be in a worst place than he was in 2016 regarding delegates. He’s made the argument that whoever gets the plurality of the delegates, even if they do not reach the majority, should get the nomination on the first round. Well, unless Sanders over-performs, Biden should be the nominee.