Iran Seems to be Buckling, and the US May Enter the War

Editor’s note: This Medium is now free due to the significant developments in the last two hours.

Important update via the president’s social media:

I will note if there is an intent to join the war. We are not in the midst of a surprise attack. There has been zero preparation of the civilian population. This will make any war harder to accept for the American people, and I include the members of the armed forces.

There is a lot of bravado on both sides, at least where we can see it. For all we know, Iran has shot down either three or four F-35 jets, yet all the evidence comes from the land of Lilliputians and impossible breaks in the airframe.

I see the following information in different places, so I'm just passing it along. There are reasons this may have some meat to it.

Iran has asked Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman to urge Trump to pressure Israel to agree to an immediate ceasefire, Reuters reported.

This is the report from the Wall Street Journal. So this is what is going on in the background. And yes, the Israeli Air Force has complete air superiority over Iranian space. At least this is the claim.

Israel has been attacking missiles before they take off, and even ancient F-14s on the ground. Yes, Iran claimed these were decoys going back decades to the Iran-Iraq war.

So, what is Israel hitting? This is but an example:

The attacks on the Bidkhna missile base, west of Tehran, as observed by the MAXAR satellite.

Storage buildings and missile launch sites were attacked. (Ben Zion Mekels)

So we are seeing a systematic destruction of the military capacity of the Iranian military. And yes, there are civilian casualties as well. Also, Israel took out the main studio of Iranian radio, because they understand this is also information warfare.

Incidentally, in a speech, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave three goals for this:

The end of the axis of terror.
The end of the nuclear program.
The end of the ballistics program.

Realize, Israel has killed ten top-level scientists. They may be doing more than just that. While at the same time, this happened this afternoon. We knew they were intending to.

BREAKING:

Iran officially suspends cooperation with the IAEA, cutting off access to nuclear sites, data, inspections, and notifications.

They are also threatening to close down the Straits of Hormuz. For those of us old enough to remember, the last time Iran did that was during the Iran-Iraq war, which led to coalition escorts in and out of the Persian Gulf. It is a critical sea route for global energy.

Yes, that’s how this expands.

If they were denying the intent to build a nuclear weapon, it is now clear they want to. All who have paid attention to this region of the world are not surprised.

As is, because of global instability, I expect a lot more countries to want nukes. And in late developments involving the United States:

❗️🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 American source: US completes preparations to enter war

According to information provided to the Israeli television channel i24, the United States is in the final stages of preparation for direct participation in a military conflict between Israel and Iran.

⚠️ The information comes amid an increased deployment of aircraft carriers, fighter jets and tanker aircraft to the region, as well as an increase in the American military contingent in the Middle East.

📌 The decision to enter the war has not yet been officially announced, but everything indicates that Washington is preparing for a full-scale operation.

Yes, we saw the forward deployment of tankers yesterday, so now we are on the brink. This tells me that the United States and Israel share one critical strategic objective: regime change.

We may be seeing the beginnings of an internal revolt. We have confirmation that the Basij are now deployed internally. We have rumors of shootouts in Tehran and the escape of prisoners from the infamous Dizelabad Prison—this after something landed close to it.

If we are about to enter the fray, internally, this will fracture MAGA. And as always, hold on to your hats, because all plans go to hell when in contact with the enemy, and Iran is a client state of Russia and arguably China. If you want a longer read, I recommend the Substack from my friend Andrew Fox.

Yes, I am qualifying this a tad. But I think all indicators are that we are indeed getting ready for entry into this war. So stay tuned, because this will have consequences well beyond the Middle East.