In my mind we are in the very early stages of one. You have Russians fighting Russians in Ukraine. It was Russians who crossed the border into first Bryansk and now Belgorod. It is Russians who are derailing trains in partisan operations. There are a slew of fires at strategic facilities, like plastics, optics and rocket engines to give the most recent examples.

It’s accelerating towards what most will acknowledge will be a civil war.

But the elements are already there, and active.

As to my predictions, it’s more like observations based on Russian history.

By western standards, or at least what most people in the US think is a civil war, the 1905 revolution was an uprising, so was the 1917 February revolution. The October revolution led to armed formations fighting each other, the reds and the whites. We have actual armed formations fighting each other already.

Hope this explains this.

And to be honest, if Russia allowed for civilians to take up signs and protest, and did not criminalize it, they probably would have saved themselves a lot of this. But then again, perhaps we would not have a war either. Imagine, for a second, Russia being a normal country.