I am using Ukraine’s general staff, which are the most liberal, with a backup from Oryx, the Brit’s are slightly lower than Ukraine, Americans are the most conservative.


As to Crimea, its a good question. Will have to see if I can dig that.


My gut tells me Ukraine might be able to drive Russia out of Luhansk and Donetsk. Crimea is a tad more difficult. But never trust my gut. Looking at the info from both DoD and MoD for Russian force strength. It matches Ukraine’s General Staff regarding Russian casualties, insofar as force degradation.

Ukraine is better at guarding its own losses, but anecdotally there are at least hundreds, if not north of a few thousand POWs, from Russian sources. The problem with Russians is that these guys keep reusing the same exact videos over and over again.

The Russian MoD has released data twice, and it is way lower than any other observer ascribes to them.