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A document leaked to Newsweek, DOD

Analysis

We find ourselves in a very dangerous historic moment. Over the last week, we had the attempted murder of former presidents, attacks on the media, and the murder of thirteen people. Two were killed at a Krogers in Kentucky and eleven at a synagogue in Pittsburgh. President Donald Trump does not care that the people who carried this crime, were activated by his race-baiting, his fear, and loathing.

This is a scared man. This is somebody who hates nothing more than to lose. For him, all that he cares about is winning, by any means necessary. This is a small man, a frightened man. He is scared, he is frightened, and he is activating the Southern Strategy once used by Richard Milhaus Nixon. Why race and fear of the other is critical for him.

The worst thing that could happen to him is to wake up Wednesday Morning and realize that the party is over. Perhaps he will face a political reckoning. This is why Trump is going for the fear and loathing from DC strategy. We see a man not interested in actually governing. We know he has abused power. He has sown seeds of hate that are flourishing, quite inconvenient before the election. So the momentum he had, was killed by actual acts of terror he still refuses to denounce. Gets worst, he has defunded the kinds of grants that would help stop other attacks.

We know the FBI considers Right Wing white supremacists just as dangerous as the Islamic State:

The threat of white supremacist violence in the US is as at least as dangerous as that posed by Islamist groups such as Isis, the head of the FBI has revealed.

Chris Wray, the recently confirmed new director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), said there were currently 1,000 ongoing investigations into domestic terror groups and a similar number of probes into groups driven by radical Islamist ideology.

“We take both of them very, very seriously,” he told senators on Capitol Hill. “Our focus is on violence and threats of violence against the people of this country. That’s our concern — it’s not ideology.”

Yet, the president continues to engage in language that gives the extreme nationalist right-wing aide and comfort. Trump has even gone and used the term nationalist. Oh never mind the history of the term in the 20th century. He is afraid, and so should you.

He hates the idea that accountability might be coming. This could be next Tuesday, or rather Wednesday morning after the ballots are counted. The absolute best case scenario for the country is that Democrats take back the Hill. The House is a likely possibility given all current models and polling. We know this is also the case since the administration expects this. And the president is defending the Senate as his political life depended on it.

Polling models give the Democrats a very good chance, probability, that the House is in the bag. Nancy Pelosi, who likely will be the next speaker if this comes to pass, even said this. It’s a mistake, but she does not impress me. You do not say that because that might demobilize voters who have yet to cast a vote. But I digress, there is something else going on that the current voting models are not taking into account. And this brings me to the current fear and loathing from DC.

The fear campaign that the president is engaging in plays well with the white, non-college educated crowd. The president has weaponized asylum seekers. He is speaking of a higher number of people marching than documented. He is trying hard to make this a scary group of bad hombres, never mind that many are women and children. The number of people marching has also grown up, never mind that many have accepted offers of asylum in Mexico. If you listen to Donald Trump the numbers of those already in the country are also higher than documented. They have gone up from 11 million to upwards of 30 million.

In his statement from the White House, he also described the caravan as full of young, well-muscled brown men. He implied heavily that they were all rapists and other criminals, and carried drugs. He all but declared a national emergency. What is next? Going to war with Mexico? Incidentally, no Mexican soldiers were hurt in this, since no members of the Mexican military were deployed, but that is another lie from the president. Under Trump, they morphed into something out of Birth of a Nation. They want our women, they desire our girls. We need to protect our (mostly white and pure) women from these animals.

This fear campaign is designed to defend the Senate. It is meant to drive mostly rural, white, non-college educated voters to the polls in states that voted heavily for Trump in 2016. Mind you, the states where Democrats are in play are deep red states. Fear and loathing played where with these voters in 2016, so he is trying the same card in the midterms.

However, what if the Senate is also in play? No, it is mostly not in the polling. One example of what I am talking about will suffice. The youth are coming out for Beto O’Rourke in Texas. They are not in any of the models. Or rather they are, but as the group that is never mobilized in midterms.

This is well beyond Texas. We are seeing in other places. And this other example from Time will serve. We have not seen this in a few generations.

Young voters could turn out to vote at record-breaking levels in the midterm elections next month, according to a new poll.

The poll, released Monday by the Institute of Politics at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, found 40% of 18 to 29-year-olds say they will “definitely vote” in the midterm elections on Nov. 6.

The turnout for this election is starting to look like the highest we have seen in fifty years. meaning that this campaign of fear and loathing may be activating people who normally do not vote. We know it is getting older Americans to the polls, but what if we see almost presidential level turnout? According to National Public Radio

It’s probably going to be a turnout rate that most people have never experienced in their lives for a midterm election,” Michael McDonald, a professor at the University of Florida who studies turnout and maintains a turnout database, told NPR.

McDonald is predicting that 45 to 50 percent of eligible voters will cast a ballot. That would be a level not seen since 1970 when 47 percent of voters turned out or 1966 when a record 49 percent turned out in a midterm.

There are issues that matter, and it is not just the fear and loathing from a non-threat slowly walking up Mexican roads. For many of the young people registering to vote and voting, it is gun laws. These young people want to strengthen gun control laws since a good guy with a gun is stupid from where they sit. This is the schools and universities of this country. The young political activists who marched after Parkland know that the only way to change the real threat of more school shootings is to vote. So they are doing that. And for them, this is not an artificial made up threat. It is a daily reality.

Most of these young people coming out to vote are nowhere in anybody’s calculations. There are reasons for that. We know they almost never vote, so they are outside any of the historical data. They could prove a nasty surprise at all levels. If they show up and vote in the numbers that are starting to gel up, all expectations will be off.

Why? Pollsters do not call them. There are several reasons for this. They are not regular voters. They do not have land lines. Most political observers do not take them into account when doing polls. Many will be first-time voters. Most calculations are done with regular voters. That is the older, mostly white group that votes in every election. That group trends more conservative as a whole, and Republican. These younger voters are more progressive, as a whole, and the colors of the rainbow.

This fear and loathing leads is to a dark place. What we are seeing is one of the regular caravans marching north from Central America. Whether you agree with them or not, it is time to realize why they are happening. Incidentally, they have been occurring, almost like clockwork for the last ten years or more. Some of the reasons behind these caravans are partly a consequence of US policy in Central America for the last thirty years. They are a classic case of blowback. And there is also a leading edge of climate change. However, they are being portrayed by the president as an invasion force. They are not. What they are, is a group of desperate people fleeing violence, some of which comes from conditions created by our policies.

There are ways to turn this around. However, there is no taste in the White House to do what is needed. Nor is there a reality that either party wants to ultimately deal with the core reasons for this population move. Incidentally, MS-13 started in Los Angeles, California, not Honduras.

However, don’t take my word for this. Who else agrees that there is no threat from people walking north? The same exact United States military ordered to deploy more troops to the border than presently we have in Afghanistan.

A leak to Newsweek was clear on this:

Many service members within the higher echelon seemed to agree that the decision to deploy thousands of troops to the border was a politically motivated tactic, with the Trump administration ordering the deployment less than a week before the November 6 midterm elections, the sources suggested.

“There is no practical or tactical reason for this to happen,” one source told Newsweek.

This is about that revival of the southern strategy once used by Richard Nixon. This is about national command authority and the abuse of such. This is about driving a very specific group of people to the polls and defending the Senate.

It is politics, but it is also fear and deep racism. He wants to mobilize older, white voters who can help him keep the Senate. They gave up on the House a while ago. And if they lose the House but keep the Senate, then Trump will have a new political punching bag for why none of his policies can pass muster.

Which brings me to the point I made above. This is about fear and loathing, as well as hate. Kt is also about conspiracy theories, such as who is funding the caravan. No, it is not George Soros, however more antisemitic you want to get. And incidentally, that got a lunatic attacking a synagogue last week.

The turnout is starting to look as if it going to approach presidential election year levels. This is not good if you are the target audience for the president, for the reasons I explained above. That may lead to some surprises on Tuesday. If the Senate flips control, the panic, the fear and loathing will only increase. The last thing this president, or his administration, need is accountability.

The irony is that if the president decided to make the case that the economy is doing well, a positive message, that would likely be better for him. Instead, the president is hell-bent on dividing the country and wasting our money with an unnecessary deployment.

Note: For those who do not know who Hunter Thomson is, he is the inspiration for the headline, he is a critical reading. So if you have never read him, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas is one of the best. He was one of the best journalists of his era. And one has to wonder what he would say about our present age.

Written by

Historian by training. Former day to day reporter. Sometimes a geek who enjoys a good miniatures game.

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