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Consequences of the defeat of Russia

11 min readJan 2, 2023

Kindergarten Students in Kursk in military uniform

The defeat of the Russian Federation will have geopolitical consequences. The defeat of Russia will also have some obvious dangers for the West, but mainly for the global order. This is a look at this from the very big picture level; you might say the 10,000 feet level. So it is, by it’s very nature, filled with generalities.

Russian defeat is coming

The defeat of Russia on the battlefield is getting closer. Granted, most nations would not be doubling down as they lose over 100,000 plus soldiers in the span of ten months. However, Russia is, partly because Vladimir Putin can’t face the reality of defeat at the hands of a country he considers inferior or nonexistent. There is also another reality. Even amid this pain, large majorities of Russians still support the war. However, there is a slowly building resistance that is becoming more adept at sabotage.

Russia has a nationalist far right that believes in the mission. They know they are fighting NATO, not Ukraine. They believe this war is one of survival for the state. Whether these are Duginists, Rushist (this is a Neonazi formation), or the Russian Imperial Movement, they believe in the expansion of Russia geographically and influence. One reason for this is to secure more defensible borders within Europe.

Russia also lost a lot of influence after 1991 and many Russians, not just…

I’m glad you included the connection between the neoliberal economic advisors and the rise of the oligarchs. I am sure there is a “Alan Greenspan” in that group who was astonished by the greed and criminality.

Or maybe they just shrug.

While Putin may still achieve much of what he wants in Ukraine as Western capacity - and willingness - to provide aid diminishes throughout 2023, in the longer term it's clear Russia is doomed. Regardless of the horrors that will befall those…