Central Asia, Chechnya, and Romania

Some important news has come from Central Asia and the Biden administration. This has critical geopolitical implications as we are starting to get closer to countries that we have largely ignored over the decades.

Realize these countries are, in some cases, firmly in the Russian sphere of influence or China. In the case of Kazakhstan, well, they are leaving the Moscow-led Collective Treaty Security Organization (CSTO.) It’s the counterpart to NATO.

Biden intends to hold his first-ever meeting next week with the heads of five Central Asian countries — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. According to Sullivan, the summit is not directed against any country, it is about a positive agenda that the United States wants to work through with these countries.

So this is kind of big at a geopolitical level. Absent from this is Armenia, which has exercises with US troops, specifically the 101 screaming eagles. Yes, that exercise was opposed by Moscow, and I will add that Yerevan is in the process of joining the Rome statue.

Moscow is far weaker today than when they started this war. They are losing control over the nations that border her and are in her direct sphere of influence.

Ramzan Kadyrov

This brings me to the northern Caucasus, specifically Chechnya. There are rumors and innuendos that Ramzan Kadyrov is in a coma. He may be dying, which leads to some speculation on my part. This is a clan-based society, and the reason Kadyrov got power was he inherited it from his dad. His father Akhmad turned against the forces that tried to become independent from Russia, ending the Second Chechen War, which killed tens of thousands and destroyed Grozny.

His death may be imminent, maybe not, and could trigger a succession crisis. None of his sons is legally old enough to take over, not that would stop anything. But it could inspire a third Chechen war and dramatically resume the dissolution of the Russian Federation.

Some forces could be brought home from Ukraine to keep the peace. This is the precise point. If the Kadyrov clan cannot keep the peace with the forces they have at home and need troops, they must pull them out.