A Perfect Storm is Forming in Russia

Russia has lost the Ukraine war. And some folks say that Russia reacts badly to this and does not like to lose wars. To be fair, no country likes to lose wars. But Russia has lost a few over the last 200 years. Let’s start in the 19th century with the Crimean War, fought over the exact same ground where this war started. Russia lost, leading to regime change in Moscow.

Then there is the 1905 Russo-Japanese war, which Russia thought she could win because mere Asian people could not face a modern Russian army. If this sounds familiar, it is still the same rationale in Moscow over Ukraine. We cannot be losing to lesser people. Ours is the second army in the world.

Russia lost the First World War, and in the end, it led to a humiliating defeat and surrender at Brest-Litovsk. That was done by the Soviet government that succeeded the leaders of the February revolution that deposed the Tsar. In other words, that defeat led to regime change.

Finally, there is the Afghanistan conflict, which marked the end of the Soviet Union. I will argue that this war will lead to similar historic patterns and the end of Putinism. And at this point, some in Russia, not the usual suspects, are starting to talk about this. Here is an example of this, and be aware that it is quite expensive for a Russian economy that is starting to crash. The question for…