A Blue Tsunami

We are on the cusp of a blue tsunami. It is starting to be beyond obvious. I expect a historic voter turnout. Perhaps the largest in the modern era. Americans are about to reject Trumpism all over the nation, perhaps not in a few red states where libertarian thought dominates, even in a pandemic. I am also willing to predict that Trumpism will do better still in rural areas, where the population is older and far more conservative. But even there, because of the trade war with China, it will not be as strong as it was in 2016.

I am willing to predict a few things eight days before November third. Democrats will sweep both Houses of Congress and the White House. It will be historic, and we may even see some Senators lose their seats that think they are still fine. This is one reason that Mitch McConnell is so keen to confirm Amy Coney Barret as an associate justice of the Supreme Court. He knows after the election it would be more difficult to pull off politically. Let's be clear here, if the blue tsunami crests high enough, he may lose not just his majority, but his seat.

This is not about polling and what it tells us. In this sense President Donald Trump is correct, the polls are wrong. However, he misses the reason why. Polls are not capturing the universe of first-time voters. We know we have a lot of these, ranging from people who have not voted in many elections to young voters who are…